Watch list

No movement (Oct 17, 2026): not re-tested this run. Resolves on an exchange freeze or recovery statement, or as gone quiet on Oct 24.

Opened Sep 28, 2026 · resolved Oct 27, 2026

Resolved as gone quiet on its Oct 24 close date: no exchange freeze or recovery statement located since Bitget's published Oct 2 reopening schedule for remaining assets including XRP.

Current (Oct 23, 2026): Thursday's print was +$3.55M on SoSoValue and CoinGlass, all through Franklin's XRPZ, so the week stands at +$4.25M after four prints (desk calc). Friday needs about $35.53M to reach the $39.78M NEUTRAL reference; a Friday outflow over $4.25M makes the week net negative and fires NEGATIVE. Resolves on Friday Oct 23's print.

Opened Oct 17, 2026 · resolved Oct 27, 2026

The week of Oct 19 closed at +$4.26M (SoSoValue; CoinGlass matches), positive but under the $39.78M NEUTRAL reference, so XRP Flows held at WEAKENING. Superseded by the week of Oct 26 item.

No movement (Oct 17, 2026): not re-tested this run; second quiet period. Resolves as gone quiet on Oct 24 absent a payments or RLUSD component.

Opened Sep 5, 2026 · resolved Oct 23, 2026

Resolved Oct 24, 2026 as gone quiet after two quiet periods: the Florida Athletics deal still shows no payments or RLUSD component.

Current (Oct 16, 2026): Patrick Witt, who led the White House push for the Clarity Act, has left and the crypto council has no staff; a White House official said the bill remains a priority (The Hill; CoinDesk). No cloture vote scheduled. Regulation Crypto Assets comments close Oct 20.

Opened Sep 7, 2026 · resolved Oct 23, 2026

Resolved Oct 24, 2026 as gone quiet: no cloture filing or floor date located since Oct 16; last known state is the White House calling the bill a priority after Patrick Witt's departure (The Hill; CoinDesk).

Current (Oct 17, 2026): the August TIC data, released Oct 16, show Japan's Treasury holdings fell $35.6 billion to $1,068.3 billion from $1,103.9 billion in July (Treasury Table 5), the intervention month. Consistent with Treasury sales funding the intervention, but TIC custodial data cannot attribute the seller; the claim holds at PARTIALLY VERIFIED. The FIMA repo check remains open. Next marker: the September TIC release on Nov 18.

Opened Sep 7, 2026 · resolved Oct 23, 2026

Resolved Oct 24, 2026: the August TIC print posted Oct 16, showing Japan's holdings down $35.6B to $1,068.3B (Treasury Table 5), about 45% of the $79.6B reserve drop (desk calc). The FIMA repo check did not produce a separate figure.

No movement (Oct 17, 2026): not re-tested this run. Resolves as gone quiet on Oct 24 absent new reporting on compliance abroad.

Opened Sep 22, 2026 · resolved Oct 23, 2026

Resolved Oct 24, 2026 as gone quiet: last known map is Turkey, Oman, UAE, Iraq, Georgia and Azerbaijan suspending Iranian flights while China continued (FDD, Sept 29). No newer compliance reporting located.

No movement (Oct 17, 2026): not re-tested this run. Resolves on the Federal Register publication date and comment deadline, or as gone quiet on Oct 31.

Opened Sep 25, 2026 · resolved Oct 23, 2026

Resolved Oct 24, 2026: the proposal published in the Federal Register on Sept 29 (FR Doc 2026-19860), putting comments due about Nov 28. ICBA asked for a 60-day extension on Oct 20.

No movement (Oct 17, 2026): not re-tested this run. Marker: availability in the first quarter of 2027; resolves then or on a named ledger and participant list.

Opened Sep 25, 2026 · resolved Oct 23, 2026

Resolved Oct 24, 2026 as gone quiet: The Clearing House's Quant release names no ledger and gives an H1 2027 timeline; nothing ties the network to the XRP Ledger.

Current (Oct 21, 2026): the Oct 20 par close of 5.42% counts, so the count is four of five (5.43% Oct 15, 5.43% Oct 16, 5.48% Oct 19, 5.42% Oct 20; U.S. Treasury). The Oct 21 close at or below 5.50 moves the gauge to ORANGE; above 5.50 resets it. Resolves on the Oct 21 close.

Opened Oct 17, 2026 · resolved Oct 23, 2026

Completed: the Oct 21 par close of 5.42% was the fifth straight at or below 5.50 (U.S. Treasury), and Bond Stress moved to ORANGE in the Oct 22 brief.

No movement (Oct 17, 2026): not re-tested this run; the November commitment stays the marker. Resolves on the final rule or as missed on Dec 1.

Opened Aug 20, 2026 · resolved Oct 21, 2026

Resolved Oct 21, 2026: the OCC published its final GENIUS Act rule on Oct 21, effective Jan 18, 2027, inside the November commitment (The Block).

Current (Oct 8, 2026): no Reuters or official report on October or November export permits located after the holiday ended Oct 7. Resolves as gone quiet Oct 21 if none appears.

Opened Oct 2, 2026 · resolved Oct 21, 2026

Resolved Oct 21, 2026: state refiners resumed clean product exports after the Oct holiday, with October exports seen at about 3.5 million metric tons, below September (S&P Global Platts, Oct 9).

Opened Oct 17, 2026 on AFP's report that UKMTO logged a tanker struck by an unknown-origin projectile 68 nautical miles northeast of Jubail on Friday, crew evacuated to a UAE-flagged container ship; Vanguard identified the Marshall Islands-flagged ST3 with an engine-room fire. Deep inside the Gulf, hundreds of kilometres from Hormuz. Watching: the UKMTO warning text, an owner statement, attribution. Resolves on the notice text and identity, or as gone quiet on Oct 24.

Opened Oct 17, 2026 · resolved Oct 19, 2026

Resolved Oct 19, 2026: UKMTO's time-late report of a tanker struck by an unknown projectile 68 nm northeast of Al Jubayl is located (ANI), and the vessel was identified earlier as the ST3. No attribution was made.

Circle's July 10 final approval is the benchmark. Watching for Ripple's conditional status converting to final. World Liberty Trust Co.'s conditional approval (Aug 15) is a second pipeline data point.

Opened Aug 11, 2026 · resolved Oct 17, 2026

Resolved Oct 17, 2026 as gone quiet after a second quiet period. Last known state: Ripple holds conditional OCC approval against Circle's July 10 final approval; no conversion to final located. The charter question carries forward on the ICBA v. OCC item, which is where the next marker (the court) sits.

Opened Aug 29 on the Friday-night announcement (verified as an announcement by both governments; execution unproven). Watching: named private operator; Venezuelan Gaceta or concession filings for the 17 fields; any PDVSA text; legal form under Venezuela's constitution; timeline to first barrel; OPEC+ reaction; whether the "doubles American reserves" framing acquires any documentary basis. Marker for escalation: a signed instrument or operator disclosure. Marker for resolution as noise: 90 days with no filings.

Opened Aug 29, 2026 · resolved Oct 17, 2026

Resolved Oct 17, 2026 as gone quiet after a second quiet period. Last known state: announced by both governments Aug 29; no named private operator, first cargo or Venezuelan volume located by Oct 17. Reopens on a named operator or a first lifting.

Opened Sept 2 on the SEC's Sept 1 proposal to rewrite transfer-agent rules (CoinDesk; crypto.news). Comments run 60 days from Federal Register publication. Watching: the FR publication date, whether the final text keeps technology neutrality, comment letters from registered onchain agents (Securitize, Injective), and the Sept 17 SEC roundtable on 24-hour trading. Not an XRP-specific catalyst; tracked as tokenization market structure.

Opened Sep 2, 2026 · resolved Oct 17, 2026

Resolved Oct 17, 2026 as gone quiet after a second quiet period. Last known state: the SEC's Sept 1 transfer-agent proposal, comments 60 days from Federal Register publication; no publication located by Oct 17. Reopens on publication.

Opened Sept 4 on the verified Sept 1 announcement that 21 financial institutions have committed to form a company in H2 2026 to issue a USD stablecoin, targeted to market in H1 2027. The release names no chain, no ticker, no reserve manager and no distribution partner, which is exactly why the Ripple-rail overlay circulating on monitored X accounts is logged CONTRADICTED as stated.

Opened Sep 4, 2026 · resolved Oct 17, 2026

Resolved Oct 17, 2026 as gone quiet after a second quiet period. Last known state: 21 institutions committed Sept 1 to form a stablecoin company in H2 2026; no company name, chain or reserve bank located by Oct 17. Reopens if the company is named. The chain claims stay on the claim tracker.

Current (Oct 7, 2026): the energy minister said Oct 6 flows reached about 5.8 million bpd that morning (The National). An unnamed source told AFP Oct 5 that an Oct 4 strike on a Khurais pumping station stopped the line; unconfirmed. Closes on an Aramco or ministry statement or flow data settling whether any stoppage occurred after Oct 4.

Opened Sep 11, 2026 · resolved Oct 17, 2026

Resolved Oct 17, 2026: the flow question is answered for now. The energy minister said Oct 6 that East-West flows reached about 5.8 million bpd (The National); the Sept 10 strike claim stays UNVERIFIED on the claim tracker. Forward risk to the pipeline and Yanbu lives on the Houthi threat item, marker Oct 27.

Current (Oct 16, 2026): Oct 15 matched fund by fund on SoSoValue and CoinGlass (-$104.51K; screenshots), the fourth match of the week of Oct 12. Resolves as settled on Oct 17 if Friday's print also matches.

Opened Sep 14, 2026 · resolved Oct 17, 2026

Resolved Oct 17, 2026 as settled. Oct 16 matched fund by fund (-$2.47M, all XRPC), five of five for the week of Oct 12 and the third straight full week of matches between SoSoValue and CoinGlass. Access remains the desk's constraint, not the data: CoinGlass is read from screenshots when the table will not load.

Current (Oct 5, 2026): Aramco raised November prices for Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean by $3 a barrel after Yanbu exports resumed, while cutting Asia by $3 (Reuters). No refiner-level allocation report located. Closes on a Reuters allocation report for November.

Opened Sep 18, 2026 · resolved Oct 17, 2026

Resolved Oct 17, 2026: the October allocation window has closed. Last known state: Aramco raised November prices for Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean by $3 a barrel after Yanbu exports resumed (Oct 5 record). The European refiner allocation claim stays on the claim tracker at PARTIALLY VERIFIED.

Opened Sept 18. Iran's IRGC Navy said it struck and detained the Togo-flagged tanker Trend late Sept 17 for an attempted illegal passage; UKMTO separately reported a tanker hit by an unknown projectile about 16 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, fire extinguished, crew safe, without naming it. Event marker: whether UKMTO, the flag state or the operator names the vessel, where the Trend is held, and any insurer or charter response.

Opened Sep 18, 2026 · resolved Oct 17, 2026

Resolved Oct 17, 2026 as gone quiet after a second quiet period. Last known state: the IRGC said it struck and detained the Togo-flagged tanker Trend on Sept 17; UKMTO's Sept 18 projectile report northeast of Khasab was never tied to a named vessel. The identity claim stays on the claim tracker at UNVERIFIED.

Current (Oct 13, 2026): the Kremlin neither confirmed nor denied a deal on Oct 12, Russia struck Ukrainian energy sites after the announcement, and Trump said he had no commitment from either side when he posted it (NBC News). The related claim is logged contradicted. Close condition unchanged: confirmation by both governments, a public collapse, or Oct 19.

Opened Oct 12, 2026 · resolved Oct 17, 2026

Resolved Oct 17, 2026: collapsed. Zelenskiy announced Kyiv was abandoning the energy-site ceasefire and Ukraine struck the Ryazan refinery on Oct 15, two industry sources told Reuters (via The Nation); the Kremlin never confirmed the deal. The refinery outage and Russian diesel exports carry on in a new oil item.

Current (Oct 14, 2026): Reuters (via AOL) reports the IEA board meets Thursday Oct 15 on the scale and timing of further releases, after Trump told EU countries to draw down stocks or face a possible US diesel export ban. Closes on the Oct 15 board outcome.

Opened Oct 3, 2026 · resolved Oct 16, 2026

Resolved Oct 16, 2026: the IEA board agreed Oct 15 to accelerate the remaining about 100 million barrels of the March action, including over 20 million barrels of diesel as soon as possible, after about 330 million released (Reuters via BOE Report; The National). Smaller than the 50 million barrels of diesel discussed in Europe. Delivery pace by member is not scheduled; it moves to the oil items.

Opened Oct 14, 2026: Iran claims a mine sank one of the container ships struck Oct 13; UKMTO reported strikes on three container ships and a tanker that day (Seatrade Maritime) but has not reported a sinking. Event marker, no threshold. Closes on UKMTO, flag-state or owner confirmation or denial of a sinking, or Oct 21 with the state recorded.

Opened Oct 14, 2026 · resolved Oct 15, 2026

Resolved Oct 15, 2026: CNBC reports the Singapore-registered container ship GFS Pride sank Oct 14 after a strike and fire; the IRGC says a mine, CNBC reports an unidentified projectile. The sinking is confirmed; the cause stays an open UNVERIFIED claim. No UKMTO sinking notice located.

Current (Oct 8, 2026, XRPScan API): PermissionDelegationV1_1 28 of 33 (threshold 26), earliest activation Oct 8 about 21:25 UTC; BatchV1_1 28 of 33 and fixBatchV1_2 33 of 33, earliest Oct 9 about 14:46 and 14:12 UTC. Validator count 33, from 34. Closes when each is enabled on ledger or loses majority.

Opened Sep 21, 2026 · resolved Oct 10, 2026

Resolved Oct 10, 2026: PermissionDelegationV1_1 enabled Oct 8 (ledger 107524865), fixBatchV1_2 and BatchV1_1 enabled Oct 9 (ledgers 107540481 and 107540993) per the XRPScan API. fixCleanup3_4_0 and the 3.4.1 minimum carry on under a new item.

Current (Oct 8, 2026): no closing filing or Evernorth post since the Oct 6 8-K; expected close on or about Oct 9, trading as Evernorth on or about Oct 12. The shell rebounded 30.26% to $25.01 Oct 7 (StockAnalysis). Redemptions and cash still unreported.

Opened Oct 1, 2026 · resolved Oct 10, 2026

Resolved Oct 10, 2026: the closing 8-K dated Oct 9 records 18,463,753 shares redeemed (about 80.3%) for about $195.39 million; XRPN trades as Evernorth from Oct 12. The cash reconciliation and first trade carry on under a new item.

Opened Oct 8, 2026 on The Atlantic's Oct 7 report, citing two administration officials, that the White House asked the Pentagon for Iran strike options usable before the Nov 3 midterms (CBS News); Brent rose more than 4% overnight. Event marker, no market threshold. Closes on an on-record confirmation or denial, an announced US strike, or the Nov 3 vote passing without one.

Opened Oct 8, 2026 · resolved Oct 10, 2026

Resolved Oct 10, 2026: Trump wrote Oct 8 that the US will not attack Iran before the midterm elections, which answers the pre-midterm question the item was opened on; The Atlantic's strike-options report itself was neither confirmed nor denied on the record.

Oct 7, 2026: no movement in 21 days. No Circle statement or explorer evidence of live Arc mainnet validators or settlement volume located in this run. Resolves as gone quiet on Oct 28 unless Circle publishes mainnet figures before then.

Opened Sep 16, 2026 · resolved Oct 9, 2026

Resolved Oct 9, 2026 as gone quiet: mainnet launched Sept 16 with 11 founding validators (The Block); two sweeps found no validator independence data or settlement volume. Last known state: live, no XRPL or Ripple statement from DTCC or SBI tied to it.

Opened Sept 14 after frontier AI lab chiefs publicly backed slowing capability development and AI-linked equities sold off worldwide (SoftBank down as much as 13.2%, SK Hynix 6.4%, ASML about 6%, Kospi 3.3% to 3.6%). The BIS quarterly review published the same morning said AI-led equity momentum has wobbled amid signs of tech-sector vulnerability and rising leverage at major US tech firms. This is an event marker with a tracked level attached: the desk watches whether the move broadens from sector-specific to general risk-off, using VIX (15.84 at Friday's close) and whether crypto begins tracking the tech tape. Global Risk Appetite has no pre-registered criteria, so nothing here moves that gauge yet; if the transmission becomes observable, a criterion should be written under Operating Rule 17.

Opened Sep 14, 2026 · resolved Oct 6, 2026

Resolved Oct 6, 2026 as reversed: the AI-led selloff it tracked did not broaden into general risk-off; the Nasdaq Composite closed at a record 27,477.31 on Oct 5 (TheStreet) and VIX last posted 15.31 on Oct 2 (FRED).

Current (Oct 2, 2026): Peirce's departure takes effect today, leaving Chairman Atkins and Commissioner Uyeda. The Commission proposed a crypto custody rule for advisers and funds on Oct 1 (release 2026-100). Closes on the first action taken by the two-member Commission or a new nominee.

Opened Sep 26, 2026 · resolved Oct 3, 2026

Resolved Oct 3, 2026: Peirce's departure took effect Oct 2 as scheduled, leaving Chairman Atkins and Commissioner Uyeda with a two-member quorum and no successor nominated (PLANSPONSOR, TFTC). The custody proposal's Federal Register date is tracked on its own item.

Current (Oct 1, 2026): November Brent expired Sept 30 at $103.50 and December settled $98.03 (FinanceFeeds); December is front month from Oct 1 and traded about $99.79 at 9:25 am ET (Trading Economics). Closes in the Oct 2 run with the first December front-month settle recorded against the $100.00 count.

Opened Sep 24, 2026 · resolved Oct 2, 2026

Roll complete: December's first front-month settle was $102.31 on Oct 1 (Profile News citing Reuters; Trading Economics prior close), above $100, so the Macro Backdrop sub-$100 count stays at zero.

Current (Sept 29, 2026): Armada's redemption window closed at 5:00 pm ET Sept 28; no take-up figure has been published. The shareholder vote is Sept 30 at noon ET. Closes on the vote result; redemption take-up and the XRPN listing date move to a follow-up item if they are still open.

Opened Aug 28, 2026 · resolved Oct 1, 2026

Resolved Oct 1, 2026: Armada shareholders approved the business combination Sept 30, 20,514,034 for and 1,362,081 against (Armada 8-K). Closing, redemptions and the XRPN listing move to a follow-up item.

Opened Sept 8 on the Houthi missile and drone attacks that the Saudi Ministry of Energy said caused fires at a number of sites and a temporary suspension of some operations, with the Saudi-led coalition reporting 73 wounded across Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan and Najran. The Houthis said they targeted Aramco facilities in Abha, Jazan and Najran plus the King Khalid airbase, and their military spokesperson said a broader operation deep into Saudi territory would be announced.

Opened Sep 8, 2026 · resolved Sep 30, 2026

Resolved Sept 30, 2026 as gone quiet: no Aramco quantification of lost volume or restart statement was located in 22 days. Last known state, Sept 8: the Jazan refinery was taken offline and tank farms at Jazan and Abha were hit (Maritime Executive, citing industry sources). Saudi supply is now tracked through the East-West pipeline and Aramco October allocation items.

Sept 28, 2026: closed on its own condition, an on-record US reply. Trump rejected the plan Sept 26; indirect talks via Qatar may resume this week, tracked separately.

Opened Sep 22, 2026 · resolved Sep 28, 2026

Resolved Sept 28, 2026: the US reply is on record. Trump said Sept 26 he rejected the proposal (Axios, CBS News), then told Axios Sept 27 he expects more talks this week; the talks track continues as its own item.

Opened Sept 8. Finance Minister Katayama said Japan's stance on currencies has not shifted since the joint intervention with the US Treasury, that authorities will work to maintain orderly markets, and that she will stay in close contact with Secretary Bessent. She said this after USD/JPY fell to 152.89, the yen's strongest since February, and she declined to characterise the move.

Opened Sep 8, 2026 · resolved Sep 26, 2026

Resolved Sept 26, 2026: the framing reversed. On Sept 25 Katayama said Takaichi told Trump an undervalued yen is problematic, and Bessent said the two discussed the desirability of a strong yen. Official language now points at yen weakness again, with USD/JPY at 157.28 after a 159.05 high. The 160 close trigger and the three-yen session test on the Yen Carry tile carry the thread from here.

Opened Sept 14 on Tasnim reporting, citing a source close to Iran's negotiating team, that Iran has seven conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and has conveyed them to Washington, and that reopening depends entirely on US behaviour. The same source said the Iran-Oman route understanding in no way means the strait will be opened. No text of the conditions has been published and no US response has been located. This is an event marker, not a market variable: there is no threshold to track. Watching: publication of the conditions in any form, any US or Gulf response addressing them, and whether the US-backed southern corridor is in fact closed.

Opened Sep 14, 2026 · resolved Sep 26, 2026

Resolved Sept 26, 2026: superseded. The anonymous seven conditions of Sept 14 were replaced by the seven-day plan Foreign Minister Araghchi set out on the record Sept 25 (ceasefire on all fronts, blockade and oil sanctions lifted, frozen assets released, Hormuz reopens at the end of day seven). That plan and the US reply are tracked under the seven-day offer item.

Opened Sept 19 on the Sept 18 announcement of a US, Denmark and Greenland security agreement. Watching: the signing expected at the UN General Assembly next week, publication of the text, whether the base ban and investment screen name Russia and China or only non-NATO parties, any named basing site beyond Pituffik, and approval by the Danish and Greenlandic parliaments. Event marker, no market threshold; the item feeds no desk gauge.

Opened Sep 19, 2026 · resolved Sep 26, 2026

Resolved Sept 26, 2026: signed at the UN Sept 22 by Trump, Frederiksen and Nielsen; Denmark published the text. Reuters explainer: non-NATO members barred from an ongoing military presence, non-NATO and non-EU investors barred from control of sensitive sectors, no end date, silent on mining. Ratification tracking is not a desk thread.

The Aug 14 brief flagged reported inflows diverging from price weakness as an anti-bias item. Aug 15 flow data confirmed a 93% week-over-week inflow collapse, resolving the divergence bearishly and driving the flows downgrade. Watching Monday's weekly print for structural vs bounce.

Opened Aug 14, 2026 · resolved Sep 25, 2026

Resolved Sept 25 as superseded: the XRP Flows gauge, its trend arrow and the tracker-disagreement item now carry the flow-versus-price record every run.

Implied passage odds collapsed from roughly 82% to 16-21% on Aug 14 and sit near 19-21% ahead of the Sept 15 cloture vote. Tracking the legislative calendar for any revival path.

Opened Aug 11, 2026 · resolved Sep 25, 2026

Resolved Sept 25 as superseded: the Sept 15 Senate cloture vote failed 49-50, so passage odds before the vote no longer apply. The post-cloture path is tracked under the House calendar and Clarity Act path item.

The 60-day Versailles framework expired Aug 17 with no deal and no extension; a senior Iranian source told Reuters that Tehran never considered the agreement to have begun. Watching for renewed strikes, new sanctions actions, or an announced negotiation restart. Oil-side escalation markers per the pre-registered criteria: Brent close above $95 or a verified attack on Gulf export infrastructure; a Brent close below $80 with recovering Hormuz transit is the improve side.

Opened Aug 17, 2026 · resolved Sep 25, 2026

Resolved Sept 25 as superseded: the umbrella item has given way to specific Hormuz items, now led by Iran's seven-day plan and the US reply.

Opened Aug 27 on Ripple's Delta One announcement (total return swaps across US-listed equities, indices, and digital assets). Watching: recovery of the launch press release, client names, whether the TRS book is entirely off-chain, any RLUSD margin or collateral role, and use of the $275 million note proceeds. The claim tracker holds this Partially Verified until the release or independent Tier 2 launch coverage is located. Any concrete XRP or XRPL settlement mechanism would be the first bridge between this corporate line and token demand; absent one, the two stay separate.

Opened Aug 27, 2026 · resolved Sep 25, 2026

Resolved Sept 25 as gone quiet: launched Aug 27 with total return swaps on US equities, indices and digital assets; no client, volume or follow-up disclosed since.

Opened Aug 28 on the Aug 27 joint final rule defining "unsafe or unsound practice" and setting uniform MRA standards (ABA Banking Journal and multiple outlets). Effective 60 days after Federal Register publication; the Federal Reserve did not join. Watching: Federal Register publication date (starts the clock), whether the Fed adopts a parallel definition, and any observable change in bank-crypto relationships or charter processing at OCC and FDIC institutions. The industry framing that this unwinds "Operation Choke Point 2.0" is analysis, not rule text; the desk tracks effects, not slogans.

Opened Aug 28, 2026 · resolved Sep 25, 2026

Resolved Sept 25: the joint final rule was published in the Federal Register on Sept 1 and takes effect Nov 2, 2026; a Sept 22 correction changed only the OCC docket number. No Federal Reserve parity rule located.

Opened Sept 2 after Saudi Arabia attributed the Sidr strike to Iran and Bahri reported two seafarers killed (Reuters). Each VLCC loaded about 2 million barrels of Saudi crude at Juaymah (Kpler). Watching: whether the vessels are underway, lightering, or disabled; any spill report; war-risk premium quotes for Gulf loadings; whether Aramco pauses in-strait loadings resumed in August. Threshold for the Hormuz gauge is unchanged: improvement requires sustained transit recovery verified across two independent trackers.

Opened Sep 2, 2026 · resolved Sep 25, 2026

Resolved Sept 25 as gone quiet. Last known state, Sept 3: Senegal Prosperity abandoned and listing off Oman after being hit Aug 30, and Sidr attacked Aug 31 with two seafarers killed (Seatrade Maritime, The DeepDraft). No later vessel, cargo or insurer update located.

Opened Sept 3 on BIS Working Paper 1374 (published Sept 2), a proof of concept anchoring hashed SDMX statistical datasets on the XRP Ledger, run on DevNet with open-source code under BIS Open Tech. Watching: any statistical authority or central bank piloting the method; references by the SDMX secretariat or the Irving Fisher Committee; any mainnet anchoring; whether the BIS Innovation Hub picks it up. The paper is research, not adoption, and XRP the asset plays no role in the design. Moves no gauge; a pilot by a named institution would be the first observable marker.

Opened Sep 3, 2026 · resolved Sep 25, 2026

Resolved Sept 25 as gone quiet: the paper describes itself as a proof of concept, and no BIS follow-up or path beyond DevNet was located.

Opened Sept 7 on a Reuters item citing Financial Times reporting sourced to two people that the 400,000 barrel per day Jazan refinery was attacked Monday with damage being assessed. No Aramco statement, no Saudi Energy Ministry statement, and no attribution located.

Opened Sep 7, 2026 · resolved Sep 25, 2026

Resolved Sept 25 unconfirmed after 18 days: no Aramco or Saudi statement names Jazan, and Aramco has not commented on damage. The Jazan claim stays PARTIALLY VERIFIED with its flip condition.

Opened Sept 9 after the desk published a brief with no VIX level at all, then filled it on a direct pull from the Cboe primary. Two things to close.

Opened Sep 9, 2026 · resolved Sep 25, 2026

Resolved Sept 25: Cboe VIX closed 14.53 on Sept 4, up from 14.32, per Yahoo Finance history, consistent with TheStreet's report of a 1.47% rise that day. The standing VIX pull is now part of every run's Risk appetite basis.

Opened Sept 10 on Bloomberg's report that Iraqi Oil Tankers Co. is seeking two VLCCs on 180 day charters to carry crude through Hormuz, tender closing Sept 10, citing an oil ministry notice the desk has not opened. Watching: whether owners bid, the charter rate as a price on transit risk, and the first loaded transit. No numeric threshold; the award itself is the marker.

Opened Sep 10, 2026 · resolved Sep 25, 2026

Resolved Sept 25 as gone quiet: the tender closed Sept 10 and no award, charter rate or first transit was reported. Last known state: Bloomberg reported Iraqi Oil Tankers Co. sought two VLCCs on 180-day charters.

Opened Sept 10 on reports that a Sept 9 CDCC Form 8-K lists Evolve and Purpose XRP ETF options as covered for US sale under Form S-20. Watching: the exhibit on EDGAR, whether earlier 2026 exhibits already named both products, and any Cboe or OCC filing for options on US spot XRP ETFs, which would be the genuinely new event.

Opened Sep 10, 2026 · resolved Sep 25, 2026

Resolved Sept 25: Exhibit 99.1 to CDCC's Sept 9 Form 8-K lists XRP Evolve ETF and XRP Purpose ETF options for US sale under CDCC's existing Form S-20 (SEC EDGAR). A roster under an existing registration, not a new US listing.

Opened Sept 11 on an FT report, citing two people briefed, of a Monday Sept 14 meeting in Salalah between Gulf foreign ministers and Iran's foreign minister; Reuters could not verify it. Watching: whether it happens, any announced arrangement, and US approval, which any deal likely needs given the blockade. No numeric threshold; the meeting and any agreement are the markers.

Opened Sep 11, 2026 · resolved Sep 25, 2026

Resolved Sept 25: the meeting was postponed before its Sept 14 date and not rescheduled; Oman's foreign minister and Iran's director-general for the Persian Gulf announced the postponement with no new date (Mehr News Agency).

Opened Sept 19 after Saudi authorities issued an air raid alert for Riyadh, explosions were heard and King Khalid International Airport reached FlightRadar24's maximum disruption index. Watching: a Saudi statement on what was hit, attribution, any damage to refining, storage or export infrastructure, and whether alerts recur. Event marker: the oil gauges are already at the top of the scale, so the market read is Brent against the $90.00 improve marker.

Opened Sep 19, 2026 · resolved Sep 25, 2026

Resolved Sept 25: the Saudi-led coalition said air defences intercepted a Houthi missile fired at Riyadh on Sept 19 and attacks aimed at Bisha, Taif, Farasan and Yanbu; Saudi authorities reported no casualties or damage. A Houthi claim of hitting an Aramco facility at Yanbu is unconfirmed (Al Jazeera).

Opened Sept 24 as Xi Jinping began his first US state visit since 2015. Trump said he would discuss the Iran war. Event marker, no threshold: watching official readouts for any Iran, Hormuz, Iranian oil, airline-ban compliance or AI line.

Opened Sep 24, 2026 · resolved Sep 25, 2026

Resolved Sept 25: the Sept 24 summit produced no Iran or Hormuz breakthrough; Xi said he supported returning to an interim agreement, and Trump offered few specifics (Al Jazeera).

Opened Sept 21 after President Trump told Fox News he would probably be open to meeting Iranian President Pezeshkian in New York this week. Event marker, no threshold: watching whether a meeting is scheduled and held, and any statement on Hormuz or talks. Oil fell on the prospect alone; a meeting that does not happen removes that support.

Opened Sep 21, 2026 · resolved Sep 24, 2026

Resolved Sept 24. UN General Assembly week produced about three hours of Qatari-mediated US-Iran talks on Sept 22 and duelling speeches, with no reported in-person Trump-Pezeshkian meeting. Follow-up talks are tracked under the US-Iran escalation path item.

Opened Aug 24: markets price roughly 82 percent odds of a September BOJ hike to 1.25 percent from 1 percent, up from about 23 percent before the July meeting, with USD/JPY near 159. A near-consensus hike shifts the carry risk from surprise to positioning: watching JGB yields, USD/JPY behavior into and through the meeting, and any cross-asset deleveraging evidence. Resolution markers: the meeting passes with an orderly yen (resolve or de-escalate), or a disorderly yen move with deleveraging evidence (feeds the carry gauge's unwind criterion).

Opened Aug 24, 2026 · resolved Sep 18, 2026

Resolved Sept 18: the BOJ raised its policy rate 25bp to 1.25% on a 7 to 2 vote. The yen weakened to a two-week low of 157.84 rather than strengthening, so the disorderly move with deleveraging this item tracked did not print. The live carry question is now the 160 line, tracked on the Yen Carry gauge and in Key Levels.

Opened Sept 9. At an SMU event in Dallas on Sept 8, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that when Washington intervenes in the yen he has pretty good insight into what the Bank of Japan and Japanese policymakers will do, invited traders to bet against him, and described having asymmetric information as his dream. Verified as a spoken statement by Bloomberg and the Japan Times; not evidence of a new intervention.

Opened Sep 9, 2026 · resolved Sep 18, 2026

Resolved Sept 18: the BOJ delivered exactly 25bp, as reporting had indicated. No Japanese official response to Bessent's characterisation surfaced in the desk's searches, and no new intervention has been disclosed. The remark was never converted into an observable operation; any future intervention would surface in Ministry of Finance data and on the carry gauge.

Opened Sept 15 on the release of the Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act, H.R. 10357, a 114-page package from Ways and Means chair Jason Smith, with markup set for Sept 16 at 10:00 am ET. Named provisions: exclusion of gains and losses on network or transaction fees under $10, unavailable to anyone with more than 5,000 transfers in the prior year; extension of wash sale and constructive sale rules to digital assets, scored by the Joint Committee on Taxation at about $2.07 billion over ten years.

Opened Sep 15, 2026 · resolved Sep 17, 2026

Resolved Sept 17: Ways and Means reported H.R. 10357 38 to 5 on Sept 16. The American Bankers Association says the staking and mining deferral was removed; that point stays an open claim at PARTIALLY VERIFIED until the adopted substitute text is read. Floor timing is tracked under the House calendar item.

Reached 80% validator support on Aug 28, 2026 (29 of 35). Activates Sept 11 at the earliest if support holds for the full two weeks; a drop below 28 votes resets the clock. A bundle of bug fixes for Single Asset Vaults, the Lending Protocol, AMMs, the permissioned DEX, Checks, and pseudo-accounts, shipped in xrpld 3.3.0. No new features. Live vote counts for every amendment are in the XRPL amendments panel below.

Opened Aug 29, 2026 · resolved Sep 12, 2026

Resolved: fixCleanup3_3_0 enabled on mainnet at ledger 106,911,489 on Sept 11, 2026 at 11:29 UTC, confirmed on the XRPScan amendments feed with the enabling transaction on record.

Opened Sept 9. The September STEO was scheduled for release today. As of the desk's check this morning the EIA page still served the Aug 11 edition, which forecast Brent averaging about $85 in 3Q26 and $87 for full year 2026, and assumed Hormuz constraints persisting through August with ongoing disruption of about 0.6 million barrels per day through end 2027.

Opened Sep 9, 2026 · resolved Sep 10, 2026

Resolved Sept 10. The September STEO published Sept 9: Brent about $90 for 2H26 and $74 for 2027, August averaged $91, 5.7 million b/d of Middle East crude shut in during 4Q26. Up from the August edition's roughly $87 full year figure, and still about $15 below Thursday's tape. Source: EIA press release.

Opened Sept 7. A specialist tracker reads RLUSD on the XRP Ledger back above Ethereum at $810M (51.7%) versus $756M (48.3%). The desk logged this unverified because it is a single Tier 3 source and because the implied total supply near $1.57B is well below the $1.939B recorded Aug 21, a roughly $370M gap that would require substantial net burning and has not been explained.

Opened Sep 7, 2026 · resolved Sep 8, 2026

Resolved Sept 8, 2026. Both questions this item was opened to answer now have figures behind them. Which chain leads: Ethereum, by about $366 million, with XRPL at $1,028,965,962 or 42.5% of a $2.42 billion total. The unexplained total supply gap: the tracker's implied total of roughly $1.57 billion was about $858 million below the real figure, because its levels correspond to late June rather than September. The underlying claim moved from unverified to contradicted in the same run. One methodological caveat is carried forward into the ranked item rather than kept open here: the non-XRPL figure is a residual from total outstanding, but an independent direct read of Ethereum near $1.38 billion matches it closely enough to show the other deployment chains hold on the order of $15 million combined.

Opened Sept 5 after Tasnim and IRIB reported four US missiles struck an Iranian tanker about six miles from Kharg's anchorage, relayed by Reuters and AP with no CENTCOM response and no Iranian official statement. Watching: CENTCOM, Pentagon or a named US official; weekend AIS around the anchorage; any Iranian statement on the crude loading terminal; whether Tehran's promised response to a Kharg attack materialises against Gulf allies or shipping. Resolves on confirmation (claim to VERIFIED) or a direct US denial (claim to CONTRADICTED). Neither the Oil Shock nor Hormuz gauge can move higher; confirmation changes the escalation path, not the classification.

Opened Sep 5, 2026 · resolved Sep 7, 2026

Resolved Sept 7, 2026. CENTCOM confirmed the strike as primary source: US forces permanently disabled the IRGC crude carrier M/T Downy off Kharg Island as one of three tankers hit Saturday Sept 5, after IRGC ballistic missile fire at a US carrier and destroyer. The claim moved from Iranian state media to verified. The four-missile and six-mile details from the original Tasnim report were never corroborated and are recorded as such. Follow-on question, whether US strikes move from tankers to Kharg export infrastructure, carries forward under the US-Iran escalation item.

Opened Sept 5 as a data integrity item. The Friday Sept 4 daily had not posted on any tracker at publish (CoinGlass placeholder row, Bitwise issuer page stamped Sept 2), and the weekly aggregate historically surfaces the following Monday, which is Labor Day. Week net +$18.96M through Thursday against $110.50M the prior week. Resolves when the daily and aggregate post; the desk will log the figure the day it lands and state whether it changed the week's read. The XRP FLOWS downgrade fires only on a verified net weekly outflow, which would require Friday to print a $19M-plus outflow.

Opened Sep 5, 2026 · resolved Sep 7, 2026

Resolved Sept 7, 2026. SoSoValue posted Friday Sept 4 as a $0.00 net session rather than leaving it unreported, so the gap was reporting lag on a genuine zero-flow day, not missing data. The weekly aggregate printed +$18.96M against $110.49M prior, roughly an 83% decline, cross-checked against a CoinGlass 73% to 96% altcoin decline band. The week was net positive, so the XRP Flows WEAKENING criterion did not fire and the gauge holds NEUTRAL with a worsening arrow. The return of zero-flow sessions carries forward as a pattern to watch.

Ripple confirmed attending. Watching the attendee list and any Reg Crypto / Innovation Exemption policy signals, including around the CFTC's Aug 20 IAC meeting.

Opened Aug 15, 2026 · resolved Aug 20, 2026

Meeting held Aug 19. Garlinghouse attended alongside Trump, Atkins and Selig; Trump publicly pushed a fair version of the Clarity Act. Follow-through tracked under the Clarity Act odds item and the Regulation Crypto Assets item.

The baseline's primary scheduled catalyst: a proposed crypto token offering framework.

Opened Aug 11, 2026 · resolved Aug 14, 2026

Canceled. Logged as the primary missed catalyst of Run 2. Watching for a reschedule around the Aug 20 CFTC IAC meeting.