Dashboard history
Each row is one category, one segment per published brief, oldest to newest. Bright outlined segments are the briefs where a classification changed; dimmed segments carried over unchanged. Tap or hover any segment for that brief's date, status, and the reason behind a change. Date ticks appear every other brief for a steady read across the timeline.
Supportive / normalNeutral / watchTightening / elevatedStressed / disruption
Opens at the newest brief. Swipe the timeline for older runs.Opens at the newest brief. Scroll the timeline for older runs.
Global liquidityYen carry tradeOil shock riskHormuz riskRisk appetiteBond stressXRP flowsMacro backdrop
8/118/158/188/208/218/258/278/289/19/39/49/89/109/11
Classification changes
Yen carry trade → WATCH
Pre-registered criterion fired: the improve marker of USD/JPY below 156 without intervention moves Yen Carry from ELEVATED to WATCH. Observed: Thursday close 155.86 after a 1.8 percent single-session fall, Friday session low 155.25 and spot near 155.85 at 9:45am ET on Sept 4, 2026, with Bank of Japan current-account data published the morning of Sept 4 showing no major intervention on Sept 2. Sources: FXStreet Asia market update carrying the Bank of Japan current-account read, and FXStreet post-payrolls note. Transition: ORANGE ELEVATED to YELLOW WATCH. The marker fired in the opposite direction to the one it was written for, and is honored as written rather than retired. New markers are deliberately symmetric: worsens back to ELEVATED on a close above 160, on any single-session move of three yen or more in either direction, or on a Bank of Japan hike larger than 25 basis points on Sept 18; improves to NORMAL on ten sessions inside a three-yen range after the Sept 18 decision with no widening in credit spreads.Sep 4, 2026
Pre-registered criterion fired: the improve marker of USD/JPY below 156 without intervention moves Yen Carry from ELEVATED to WATCH. Observed: Thursday close 155.86 after a 1.8 percent single-session fall, Friday session low 155.25 and spot near 155.85 at 9:45am ET on Sept 4, 2026, with Bank of Japan current-account data published the morning of Sept 4 showing no major intervention on Sept 2. Sources: FXStreet Asia market update carrying the Bank of Japan current-account read, and FXStreet post-payrolls note. Transition: ORANGE ELEVATED to YELLOW WATCH. The marker fired in the opposite direction to the one it was written for, and is honored as written rather than retired. New markers are deliberately symmetric: worsens back to ELEVATED on a close above 160, on any single-session move of three yen or more in either direction, or on a Bank of Japan hike larger than 25 basis points on Sept 18; improves to NORMAL on ten sessions inside a three-yen range after the Sept 18 decision with no widening in credit spreads.Sep 4, 2026
Oil shock risk → SHOCK
Pre-registered criterion fired: an ICE Brent front-month settlement above $95.00 worsens Oil Shock from ELEVATED to SHOCK. Observed: Brent settled $95.63 on Wednesday, September 2, 2026, its first close above $95 since late July, after a $97.04 session high. Sources: CNBC settlement report and Reuters session data. Transition: ORANGE ELEVATED to RED SHOCK. New improve marker: a settlement below $90.00 returns the gauge to ELEVATED; below $80 with verified recovering transit for WATCH.Sep 3, 2026
Pre-registered criterion fired: an ICE Brent front-month settlement above $95.00 worsens Oil Shock from ELEVATED to SHOCK. Observed: Brent settled $95.63 on Wednesday, September 2, 2026, its first close above $95 since late July, after a $97.04 session high. Sources: CNBC settlement report and Reuters session data. Transition: ORANGE ELEVATED to RED SHOCK. New improve marker: a settlement below $90.00 returns the gauge to ELEVATED; below $80 with verified recovering transit for WATCH.Sep 3, 2026
XRP flows → NEUTRAL
Criterion: second consecutive strong weekly print, weekly net inflow at or above the $39.78M reference, verified across at least two independent trackers (pre-registered Aug 21, restated Aug 28). Observed: week ending Aug 28 net inflows of roughly $110.5M (SoSoValue, dailies $13.82M, $23.87M, $28.14M, $18.47M, $26.2M) corroborated by CoinGlass's XRP-denominated table at 75.87M XRP (9.09M, 16.12M, 19.63M, 12.99M, 18.04M; read Aug 29 early afternoon ET), converting to roughly $105 to $110M at the week's prices, with Friday per-fund figures matching across both trackers (Bitwise +10.60M XRP vs +$15.4M; Canary +3.53M XRP vs +$5.1M). Sources: SoSoValue dashboard; CoinGlass XRP ETF flow table. Transition: WEAKENING to NEUTRAL; improving arrow resolved by the criterion firing.Aug 28, 2026
Criterion: second consecutive strong weekly print, weekly net inflow at or above the $39.78M reference, verified across at least two independent trackers (pre-registered Aug 21, restated Aug 28). Observed: week ending Aug 28 net inflows of roughly $110.5M (SoSoValue, dailies $13.82M, $23.87M, $28.14M, $18.47M, $26.2M) corroborated by CoinGlass's XRP-denominated table at 75.87M XRP (9.09M, 16.12M, 19.63M, 12.99M, 18.04M; read Aug 29 early afternoon ET), converting to roughly $105 to $110M at the week's prices, with Friday per-fund figures matching across both trackers (Bitwise +10.60M XRP vs +$15.4M; Canary +3.53M XRP vs +$5.1M). Sources: SoSoValue dashboard; CoinGlass XRP ETF flow table. Transition: WEAKENING to NEUTRAL; improving arrow resolved by the criterion firing.Aug 28, 2026
Bond stress → ELEVATED
10-year JGB touched 2.93% on Aug 17, highest since September 1996, with the 2-year at 31-year highs and the US 30-year near 5.25% after a sharply tailed auction. The Aug 15 brief flagged this gauge as near cycle highs but carried no pre-registered numeric trigger at yellow; this upgrade fires on the fresh multi-decade highs, and numeric criteria are now pre-registered (JGB 10y 3.00% and US 30y 5.50% worsen, JGB 10y 2.75% and US 30y 5.10% improve).Aug 17, 2026
10-year JGB touched 2.93% on Aug 17, highest since September 1996, with the 2-year at 31-year highs and the US 30-year near 5.25% after a sharply tailed auction. The Aug 15 brief flagged this gauge as near cycle highs but carried no pre-registered numeric trigger at yellow; this upgrade fires on the fresh multi-decade highs, and numeric criteria are now pre-registered (JGB 10y 3.00% and US 30y 5.50% worsen, JGB 10y 2.75% and US 30y 5.10% improve).Aug 17, 2026
XRP flows → WEAKENING
XRP ETF inflows collapsed 93% week over week on confirmed flow data, resolving the divergence flagged Aug 14 in the bearish direction.Aug 15, 2026
XRP ETF inflows collapsed 93% week over week on confirmed flow data, resolving the divergence flagged Aug 14 in the bearish direction.Aug 15, 2026
Global liquidity → NEUTRAL
July retail sales missed (-0.6% MoM vs +0.1% expected) and August UMich sentiment fell to 51.0; with cooler PPI/CPI prints, near-term hike odds softened.Aug 14, 2026
July retail sales missed (-0.6% MoM vs +0.1% expected) and August UMich sentiment fell to 51.0; with cooler PPI/CPI prints, near-term hike odds softened.Aug 14, 2026